MOGADISHU (EDITORIAL) – Series of discussion and subsequent coalitions that culminated in the formation of Forum for National Parties (FNP) have shade light on the kind of change the opposition politicians are expecting to get after Somalia’s 2020/2021 elections. Several sequent actions by the leaders of the opposition parties have already hinted at their failure in the upcoming poll.
Following the inauguration of FNP early November, many people had commended the move spearheaded by the former president, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.
Many people in and outside the country have also been lauding rare decisions by Sheikh Sharif to abide by law after he announced that he would file a case against the government.
The leader accused the government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo of blocking him from traveling to Kismayo where he was planning to attend the controversial inauguration of Jubbaland’s Ahmed Mohamed Madobe in late September.
The leader of Himilo Qaran and the party members accused the government of violating the rights of its leader and other delegates.
The decision was said to be an indication that Somalia had taken the right way to encourage its citizens to seek justice and protection from the country’s constitution.
However, last week, many Somalis were shocked after former president and opposition leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed declared the opposition will ‘decisively fight back’ any attempts by the federal government.
Referring to the removal of warlords and the militant group Al-Shabaab from Mogadishu, the former leader who led the last Transitional Federal Government until 2012 said ‘if they (federal government) don’t stop, we will remove them’.
The tough words by the leader have angered and discouraged many people who are fearing rival armed attempts could further plunge the country which is recovering from over two decades into anarchy.
The remarks of the leader came days after the leader of a political party, Ileys, Abdikadir Osoble indirectly announced war on the Somali government by saying that residents of Mogadishu know how to fight.
Referring to the war between Somalis in Mogadishu and Ethiopian troops who invaded the city in 2007 forcing thousands to flee to Elasha-Biyaha locality, Osoble said
“We are telling the president and his government that the Ceelasha-biyaha is still vacant.” Osoble’s words sounded like a hate speech that urges the people of Mogadishu to flee again to Ceelasha-biyaha and afterward remove the administration from Mogadishu as it was done to the Ethiopian forces when they occupied the city. Both Ahmed and Osoble are active members of the newly formed FNP.
Unfortunately, other members of the umbrella have not distanced themselves from ill motives of these two politicians but even some members like Ahmed Moalim Fiqi praised the ideology of President Ahmed.
Sharif falls into a trap
President Sharif was known to possess a calm behavior and to give chance to the leadership of the government during the immediate four years after he was defeated from the presidential election and the first three years of president Farmajo tenure, as he used to portray himself as a former president who is a peacemaker and on the same time working in mending relations between the government and the opposition or the government and the region’s state.
However, Sharif has been given poor advice by his friends in the opposition, after he encountered challenges during a trip to Beledweyne. Sheikh Sharif reacted angrily, highlighting the determination and the patience of the former president when there is a matter touching him personally.
This particular event that Sharif encountered was indeed not the first mistake of the current administration, Sharif, let alone condemned failures of the current government but has also never advised the government to resolve grievance that has come from the public or other politicians.
According to sources, President Sheikh Sharif, who before his angry statements, appeared as one of the potential and outstanding candidates to win the next year’s presidential election, but some other opposition politicians, who saw Sharif as a direct contender, saw this as an opportunity to reduce his influence on the quest of the presidency dramatically. They decided to throw Sharif towards the flames and to the toxic environment.
Sheikh Sharif, who may have seen the leadership of the National Forum as an opportunity, at least as a political role for some time, has made a damaging decision to hold the leadership of the forum at this critical time and that itself, he has already been dragged into actions which cost him lose the support of the mainstream, to the point where he declared a civil war.
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed should wake up early and realize that this kind of leadership will only kill his hopes for the presidency, and to leave this scandalous post and apologies to the public for his hateful remarks that he used, even though it would be very difficult for him to recover from the damage of his remarks.
Political suicide of the Forum leaders
The leaders of the major political parties of the Himilo Qaran, UPD and Ileys, who before the establishment of this forum were part of the real contenders of the presidency for the upcoming 2020/2021 election, now seem to have buried themselves alive while it is more than one year before the next election.
The forum has reiterated that they want the country to have a free and fair election, but what can hamper elections is insecurity, especially clan conflicts, which the leadership of the forum is creating by inciting violence. In regard to public opinion, these leaders have greatly reduced their reputation.
However, when you look keenly on the inciting violence remarks used by Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Abdulkadir Osoble, which was also endorsed by their UPD allies, it has created a new public perception that party leaders are without their intention are technically pulling out of the race and giving space to the incumbent and other opposition politicians who managed to move slowly through the difficult times towards the throne of the presidency.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was ahead of Sheikh Sharif in opposing the administration of Farmajo has succeeded in limiting his remarks, He’s the politicians believed to have cheated Sharif on this illusion position, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has supported him with laughter and applause when Sharif utters his hateful remarks.
Hassan Sheikh is the immediate former president and he is seen as a politician whose mistakes during his tenure are still visible, while whatever he blames on the current government are more or less the same things he has failed in doing himself.
Osoble, though he is not one of the most talked-about candidates in the upcoming election, has not ruled out whether he would create an opportunity to emerge from now on. The people of Somalia, who have long been affected by conflict, are tired of inciting remarks and hate speech.
Is NFP a national forum or a forum for certain clan?
Among the six pillars of the newly announced NFP was working on means to get inclusive politics but a brief glance at the forum through a telescope will show us that it represents a certain clan.
For instance, the frontbenchers Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and Abdikadir Osoble, all hail from Abgaal of Hawiye tribe. Therefore, it is logical that the forum represents only one clan. It is also arguable that the forum members who are from Mogadishu including the trio are ones trying to handicap the government.
So, the fact that the forum is not inclusive, it clear that it will need a shake-up and to convince other clans.
The leadership of the forum should keep away from public incitement and anything encouraging clannism.
Finally, the seedling of democracy needs politicians who could read in between the lines and analyze the future of the country.
The political alliance which is clean from clan involvement could be the savior of this country and that is the only way the country can leave behind the clan power-sharing system.
However, the huge opportunity left by the leaders of the National Party Forum is vacant space that is needed to be filled by the opposition with a vision that will make it necessary for the government to listen and negotiate for the country’s fate.
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